That's a big reason Philadelphia leads Kansas City in Super Bowl chances, 14% to 13%. The median AFC playoff team in our simulations is roughly 2.4 points per game better than the median NFC playoff team. Despite a lack of clarity at quarterback with Brock Purdy recovering from elbow surgery, their roster and Kyle Shanahan's offensive playcalling are strong enough to justify a high rating. Rounding out the top five are the San Francisco 49ers. at left tackle to shore up its biggest weakness. The Cincinnati Bengals are fourth in FPI rating, as they return their key offensive triumvirate of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. (The Detroit Lions, who ranked fourth in the category, are 11th in FPI because of a much weaker defense and perhaps less confidence in Jared Goff repeating his excellent 2022 campaign.) Offensively, they are just too good, and that alone is enough to put the Super Bowl champs back atop the league to begin this coming season.Īfter Kansas City, the pattern holds - the Buffalo Bills and Eagles were the two next-best teams in offensive EPA per play last season, and they rank Nos. They are also returning their two most important ingredients in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. 1? Offense is more stable year-to-year than defense, and the Chiefs led the league in expected points added per play last season by a wide margin. Schedule strength | Surprises | Draft order Let's take a closer look at the initial 2023 ratings, including storylines emerging from these numbers. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. In the preseason, the model's predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. But interestingly, the model actually views the Philadelphia Eagles - who lost to the Chiefs in the title game last season - as the Super Bowl favorite. It's a result of the vast difference in quality between the NFL's two conferences: The AFC is loaded with talent, while the NFC appears to have only a few contenders, paving the way for Philly.įor the uninitiated, the Football Power Index - commonly referred to as the FPI - is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. 1 team in ESPN's Football Power Index rankings for the 2023 NFL season. The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the No. NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Football Power Index: 2023 projections, Super Bowl chances You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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